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The beach towels are still sandy, but if you ask many American families, back-to-school season is already in full swing. You may have even noticed that the school supply aisle in your local Target or Walmart has already been picked-over. Rising concerns over looming tariffs are prompting parents and teachers to start their supply runs early, and effectively reshaping the traditional shopping calendar.
According to our latest nationwide survey, over two-thirds of U.S. consumers expect price hikes will influence their back-to-school purchases. It’s no surprise that these rising costs prompted families to start their shopping before July even began, and one thing is abundantly clear: timing is everything—and shoppers are learning to think weeks, even months, ahead in order to stretch their budgets further. This season is all about beating the price clock.
The Early Birds Are Already Shopping
Back-to-school shopping usually picks up in late July or early August. But this year, 56% of consumers are kicking things off early to avoid tariff-related price hikes and item shortages. A whopping 32% had already started shopping by the end of June. Shoppers are adapting to a new reality shaped by inflation, import duties, and ongoing economic uncertainty.
What’s behind the rush? Tariffs could drive up prices on everything from backpacks to electronics, and parents don’t want to be caught paying more. There’s also deep concern about item availability–many parents are stockpiling now to avoid facing empty shelves later in the summer and early Fall.
Navigating Back-to-School Price Hikes
For families, shopping now instead of later isn’t just a preference; it’s a financial necessity. About 70% say they’ve already felt the financial squeeze this season, and despite this, half expect to spend more than they did last year. However, shoppers don’t want to go overboard—the majority of shoppers plan to spend under $300 on back-to-school items. Only about 10% of shoppers plan to spend $600 or more– talk about massive savings!
It’s clear that these aren’t carefree shopping sprees—shoppers are carefully strategizing. Among the 71% concerned about rising costs, over half (56%) of shoppers surveyed said they are leaning on coupons and rewards apps (wink, wink—Shopkick). In financially straining times like these, many consumers (64%) are prioritizing essentials and nearly one-third (36%) are stocking up in advance to avoid future price hikes.
Smartphones and AI in the Shopping Aisle
Shoppers are taking advantage of the latest, most accessible technology to ensure they get the best deals. 87% of consumers plan to use their smartphones while shopping. Beyond that, 21% are experimenting with artificial intelligence, and 14% are exploring immersive tools like augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) to find the best deals. These tools not only help families save money; they also simplify the experience, reducing stress and allowing for more confident decision-making.
Big Box Wins the Retail Battlefield
When it comes to shopping for the upcoming academic year, budget-conscious American families are racing out the door to find the best deals for their kiddos. Where’s the best place to find good quality supplies for students, you may ask? With convenience, affordability, and variety in mind, parents are looking to find all of their back-to-school goods at trusted big box retailers. These stores offer the consistency, stock depth, and low prices that families now rely on.
Though half of back-to-school shoppers plan to check out their nearby dollar store for hidden gems, the majority (90%) are heading straight to big-box retailers. In terms of what’s in the cart, classic school supplies still lead the way; the majority of Americans (81%) plan to stock up on clothing, writing tools, and folders, while half are shopping for backpacks, glue, and adhesives. Interestingly, a little over one-third of shoppers plan to buy tech like computers and headphones. Not only are supply becoming pricier, but supply lists are becoming longer. Bigger asks from schools means wallets are feeling the pinch!
Back-to-School Is Now a Summer Strategy
“We’re seeing families treat back-to-school shopping like a strategic game of beat-the-clock,” said Brittany Billings, CMO at Trax. “Parents are essentially getting a crash course in economics, weighing whether to buy that backpack now or risk paying significantly more in August—if it’s even in stock.”
Retailers are taking note. Back-to-school has long been the second-largest retail season after the winter holidays, but this year’s compressed shopping window and shifting priorities suggest a deeper shift in consumer behavior. According to Billings, we may see Halloween, Thanksgiving, and even Christmas inventory appearing earlier than ever as retailers try to stay ahead of pricing concerns.
What’s Next: Retail Strategies Must Adapt
This year’s early back-to-school rush highlights the growing impact of external economic factors on consumer decision-making. To stay competitive in the school supply market, brands and retailers need to understand not just what shoppers are buying, but when, how, and why.
We’d love to help you take your retail strategy to the next level–let’s connect and explore how Shopkick by Trax can support engaging shoppers in the aisle. Our Consumer Insights solutions provide valuable data and actionable insights that can help you understand and anticipate consumer behavior, enabling you to make informed decisions and uncover trends or issues before they hit your bottom line. And our Trax Execution solutions optimize your in-store operations, ensuring that your products ready on the shelf during spontaneous purchase decisions and displays are properly stocked and placed.
Stay ahead of changing shopper habits and turn economic uncertainty into opportunity. Discover how Trax can help you navigate the complexities of the modern retail environment and help power the “perfect store.”
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