New data reveals 71% of back-to-school shoppers expect price hikes to impact purchases, with over half starting their supply runs before summer hits its stride 

 

BOSTON, MA — July 11, 2025 – The fireworks have barely faded and the beach towels are still damp, but American families and teachers are already racing to beat expected price hikes on back-to-school essentials. New consumer data from Trax Retail, the technology company revolutionizing retail through data-driven AI, reveals that over half of shoppers plan to start their back-to-school shopping earlier than ever this summer, driven by concerns that proposed tariffs could significantly increase costs on everything from backpacks to electronics.  

 While summer officially has a little under three months left on the calendar, the looming threat of higher prices has compressed the traditional shopping timeline. Families are juggling sunscreen runs with strategic stockpiling of school supplies in what has become a new calculus of economic uncertainty meets academic preparation. 

 In a survey of nearly 5,500 consumers, Trax found that 71% of shoppers expect tariffs and resulting increases in prices will impact how they back-to-school shop this summer. 

 Key Findings:  

  • Early Bird Gets The Worm: 56% of shoppers plan to start their back-to-school shopping earlier than usual due to anticipated tariff-related price hikes or item shortages; 32% of folks had already started their back-to-school shopping by the end of June. 
  • New School Tools: 87% of shoppers will be using their smartphones during back-to-school shopping. Twenty-one percent plan to use artificial intelligence, and 14% will engage with new immersive technologies, such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR), while shopping. 
  • Real-World Math Problems: 70% of back-to-school shoppers report that price increases due to tariffs have impacted their budget this season; 50% report expecting to spend more this year than in previous years.  
  • Dollars and Sense: Most shoppers (40%) plan to spend between $100-$300 this summer; 28% plan to spend up to $100, and 21% plan to spend between $300-$600. Only 11% of shoppers will spend upwards of $600. 
  • Spending Smarter: Of the 71% of shoppers that expect tariffs and price hikes to impact how they shop, 64% are only buying essentials, 60% are hunting for deals and comparing prices more than they traditionally have, 56% are using coupons and rewards apps, 39% are reusing materials, 36% are stocking up, 27% are shopping second-hand, and 8% are turning to buy-now-pay-later plans. 59% plan to buy less from big-name brands and more from private, smaller labels. 
  • Supply Run Strategy: An overwhelming majority of back-to-school shoppers (90%) will frequent big box retailers as their first stop, followed by 50% turning to dollar stores. When it comes to what shoppers are buying, apparel, writing tools, and notebooks/binders/folders ranked highest (81%), followed by coloring tools (65%), adhesives (55%), and backpacks (50%). Only 36% plan to spend on new technology, such as computers, tablets, and headphones. 

 “We’re seeing families treat back-to-school shopping like a strategic game of beat-the-clock,” said Brittany Billings, CMO at Trax. “Parents are essentially getting a crash course in economics, weighing whether to buy that backpack now or risk paying significantly more in August, if it’s even in stock. It’s fascinating to see how external economic pressures are completely reshaping one of retail’s most predictable seasons, turning leisurely summer shopping into urgent supply missions.” 

 The survey data comes at a critical time for retailers, who traditionally see back-to-school as their second-largest shopping season after the winter holidays. This year’s compressed timeline and budget-conscious behaviors signal a fundamental shift in consumer patterns that could reshape retail strategies moving forward. 

 “Beyond back-to-school, I wouldn’t be surprised to see other holiday-related items, such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and even Christmas, hitting the store floors before the end of summer in anticipation of price increases and shortages,” continued Billings. 

The survey of 5,475 American consumers was conducted through Shopkick, Trax’s shopping rewards platform, between June 9 and June 18, 2025. Trax Retail is a leading technology company that uses AI, image recognition, and data to help brands and retailers optimize operations and understand consumer behavior.